The casbah of the Libyan war
France does not like Gaddafi: Just watch me '! In fact, his friends, for more French-speaking North Africa have always been, from colonial times onwards, Tunisians, Algerians and Moroccans, who also have large colonies of immigrant citizens of the hexagon. France was kept in a corner in the Libyan oil issues (suffice it to say that the only Eni in Libya produced 270 thousand barrels of oil equivalent, compared with 57 000 of the French Total big sister), it is to be kept aside in a special relationship of Libya 's Europe.
The global economy is now speaks English , And even the French speak English in business, so for them the French-speaking world is a beautiful thing, but less and less relevant to practical effect. There has been no movement in Libya? So why not jump immediately with the insurgents? If it goes badly, France remains marginalized, if all goes well acquires the merit of being the first to choose the right field. These arguments are cut with an ax. Surely, the French foreign policy towards the Libyan problem is more complicated and refined with respect to the interests set out above brutes. There are issues of principle (the "France républicaine" of "Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité and human rights ). And there are also political problems, the French right is against Gaddafi and the polls in favor of Marine Le Pen (National Front), 23% versus 21% for Sarkozy, urged the government to satisfy an electorate that is likely to pass right-to- extreme right, the next presidential elections of 2012.
But perhaps the crucial point of this sudden and rapid selection of French Foreign Minister, Alain Juppe, to recognize the legitimacy of the new born in Libya, Cyrenaica, founded by information on the internal situation in Libya. It is now clear that the Libyan civil war is a war "tribal". Today there are about 140 tribes in Libya, which represent more than 85% population (6.3 million). Gaddafi has deliberately favored the state-tribal than democratic or military or dictatorial. He was the guarantor of a balance between the tribes, won with money and power, to be distributed among the various offspring. There were also contradictions evident in this "balance", for example Gaddafi deposed the prime minister Jallud, who participated with him in the coup against King Idris, Jallud is an important member of the tribe Magariha, so many thought that this tribe had been deployed against Gaddafi, but in the same tribe, there are also the Lockerbie bombing (Al Megrahi) that the Libyan leader could to be free in England and many senior military officers, including General Jaber. Probably beginning the revolt started by the dominant tribes, even with military mutinies, encouraged by officials of this or that ilk, Gaddafi was a loser, just think of that first TV interview in the rubble of their former power. Then, more likely, he was able to find a new balance tribal, making concessions, re-establishing networks of agreements and power. And who knows if Magariha failed to return with him. Anyway now he seems to be on the winning side.
Services French have a tradition in North Africa, probably also familiar with the Libyan tribal games and cheating, it is possible that the French government seeks to build on this information, betting on a disastrous fall of Gaddafi (also in the case of an agreement "tribal" between the prime minister and others would lose the bet) . One thing is certain: at present, Libya is a "casbah" of tribes at war with each and every bet on who will prevail can be risky, and every intervention can be adventurous. Speak today of a secular democracy or human rights (not just in Libya but throughout North Africa and in almost all Arab countries) is to make the rhetoric. So the French government has chosen to rhetoric, pointing to oil, if possible, and the elections of 2012 in defense of Sarkozy.
Posted by "the West" 's March 11, 2011
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