The hard, the speaker, the Anglophone and West here is the magnificent four that will guide China in 2012
of Francis Sisci
We need to say? We are in China, the country where many events appear to apparently something and actually more. Look for example, the Chinese parliament's plenary session in progress. Apparently it is a rite tired, pompous, repetitive certainly can not rescue us from boredom or images of fire and flames in the news in other parts of the world. In reality, behind the scenes have been open, the general policy for the transition more difficult and delicate, and perhaps more importantly, on the planet.
will to power in 2012 the new leadership that will guide China until 2022, but this time, unlike 2002 or 1992, the succession will not be affected by a man above others, Deng Xiaoping. This time will be a compromise or a series of compromises between groups of nearly equal power and influence. The last time that China had such a thing was the death of Mao in 1976. Then it ended with a coup and the arrest of the notorious "Gang of Four led by Mao's widow, Jiang Qing.
Today things are very different, but perhaps are more uncertain at the time. The whole world is involved in the matter objectively seen as the economic and political weight of China's choice of his men will have a global impact.
There is no doubt the two key men of the story, Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, now vice-president respectively and vice-premier vicar, in 2012 should be no 1 and 2 of the party with the offices of President and Premier likely. Of course, a third member of the supreme leader, which will focus in the politburo restricted: there will be Li Yuanchao, head of the powerful party organization department.
Beyond all these is uncertain how many people will begin to count the politburo and above will be selected as the components that compose the enlarged politburo and central committee, heart and lungs of Chinese politics.
Today The politburo is made up of nine people, the largest number of historically this group that previously had five or seven members (always odd to secure a majority in the case of voting). But nine, it is argued, is a number too large to make decisions faster. He had actually arrived at this number in 2002, when the party makes its first peaceful transition of power from former president Jiang Zemin to his successor, current President Hu Jintao. Jiang actually for two years held the post of president of the Central Military Commission, the highest lever of power, but released by the politburo and filled him with his men and had expanded to nine members (seven), perhaps also to ensure inefficiency that would have emphasized its role as arbitrator.
In fact, the national and international agendas are many and complicated, and nine people were a fair number that was maintained in 2007 (the party congress meets every five years). Today, with the multiplication of the confusion and complication, some say that it is impossible to return to seven members, a number more agile and quick to decide, but the group should expand to 11, or at least maintain the nine.
Also: who decides? In 2002, when Deng had died five years earlier and was actually left by the policy early 1995, when he had a stroke that left him in a vegetative state, he and his small group of elderly veterans of the Long March had decided that his successor would be Hu Jintao, the politburo led restricted in 1992. Except for Hu, Jiang decided then the rest of the leadership team.
Today Jiang, born in 1926, has not the power status and Deng, and even if he and his climbing companions have contributed to the choice of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang in 2007, there should be stop The rest of the appointments should be for Hu. Or not? Hu has or has not the weight of Jiang in 2002? and especially in the last ten years the country has changed, it is highly fragmented, strong interest groups have emerged who will own, such as military, oil companies, exported, financial groups and so on. With these, the president must deal with, can not simply dictate, then because otherwise work against or simply do not cooperate.
Then there is the future role of Hu himself that it is not clear. She'll be 70 years in December 2012 and is expected to retire in October of that year, then in 69 years. But in 2002 his predecessor, Jiang, 76 years and had had an extension for another two years, almost like going to the archbishops. There are all elements that Hu might want an extension of his mandate as head of the military commission. To refuse or not be a fundamental indication of the structure and the willingness of Chinese power.
Finally, there are issues of personality. The future president Xi Jinping is man-willed, pugnacious, former head of the Red Guards. That is, after two generations of technocrats, that of Jiang and Hu's return to power of the revolutionaries, who certainly have not gone through the Long March, as Mao and Deng, but they have suffered and endured as their struggles and torments very hard during the Cultural Revolution . Xi and Li Keqiang also were heads and then the Red Guards were sent to the country and have fought tooth and nail to emerge leaders of their production brigades, which is difficult in the midst of a hostile environment for farmers to the arrival of young intellectuals of the city.
then be content to remain under the shadow of the oldest? And their young revolutionary furies were buried or continue to simmer, leaving the possibility of rekindling strong political controversy that could split the future management team with unforeseen consequences?
A bit 'of this was anticipated from the behavior of Bo Xilai, Party secretary of the immense metropolis of Chongqing. Just arrived in town, started a fierce campaign against organized crime, which has thrown mud on its predecessor, and then unleashed a shot of the revolutionary slogans of the 60s. Both are exploits out of Beijing and directives that have given important signals to the entire country. This year will be important to see if these acts would lead him to a pension or restricted in the politburo.
The four
Ace of hearts. Xi Jinping, the hard
ace of diamonds. Li Keqiang, the speaker
ace of clubs. Li Yuanchao, the Anglophone
Ace of Spades. Bo Xilai, the Western
from "Il Sole 24 Ore", March 7, 2011
0 comments:
Post a Comment